It’s no secret millennials love lists. They’re a simple, easy to digest form of content that one can skim and form an opinion on in less than a minute.
It’s been a while since The Sunday Cycle has embraced it’s inner millenial and gone with a list, but I feel the timing is appropriate. The Brewers will cross the halfway point of the season this week and are in first place in the NL Central by 2 games. The next month will feature not only the All-Star break, but also the much anticipated non-waiver trade deadline. After that, it’s a two month grind to the finish line as the Brewers look to make their first postseason appearance in seven years.
A lot is going to go down over the next three months, as each game gets more and more important. There’s a laundry list of things this team needs to do to make a run and sustain the success that’s had them in first place for much of the season.
In a special two part series, I’m going to cover 10 events that will happen over the next three months if the Brewers are truly playoff-bound. These are tangible, measurable events – they’re either going to happen or they won’t.
While the Brewers don’t need to do all ten things, I’m willing to make a hot take that if the Brewers make the postseason, at least six of these ten things will have happened. Rest assured, we’ll be revisiting this article in a couple of months to see just how accurate it was.
1. Corey Knebel ends the season with more than 50 appearances.
It certainly feels like we don’t see Corey Knebel much these days. Knebel has appeared in just 7 games this month, compared to 14 in June of 2017, and two of those (including today) were in non-save situations just to get him some work. He’s appeared in just 19 games this year after starting the season on the DL. More recently, Knebel’s lack of work can be attributed to the fact that the Brewers just haven’t had a ton of save situations. I believe we will see that change.
50 appearances would require Knebel to pitch about once every three games. If that’s happening, it means the Brewers are in save situations at least once per series. He’s only going to get to 50 if he’s converting those saves, something I’m confident he will be able to do.
2. Freddy Peralta is optioned to AAA Colorado Springs no more than once the rest of the season.
To start, I think Freddy Peralta is a star, and he has earned the right to continue pitching in the Brewers rotation. He’s 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 25 strikeouts in three starts. With his strikeout rate, there’s a spot for Peralta in the Brewer’s bullpen even if the starting rotation gets crowded via trade or the return of Jimmy Nelson. With the way the Brewers have been managing their rotation, even if Peralta is lights out over the next three weeks, it’s likely he will be optioned back to AAA after his final start before the All-Star break, which as of right now would take place on Thursday, July 12th.
Peralta can help this team make the playoffs in two ways. The first is obvious: he continues to pitch at this clip and gives the Brewers no choice but to keep him on the 25-man roster after the All-Star break and through the month of August. The second is less obvious: notice I said Peralta is “optioned to AAA Colorado Springs”. If the Brewers are going to make a blockbuster trade that doesn’t involve their top prospect Keston Hiura, Freddy Peralta will almost certainly be a part of the package they send away, which wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world if the Brewers bring in a starting pitcher with team control extending beyond 2018. Either way, Peralta has impressed, and the Brewers would be foolish not to give him a chance to continue to contribute to their 2018 postseason run.
3. Ryan Braun hits above .300 from this point forward.
No doubt in my mind, the Brewers will need Ryan Braun’s bat to heat up if they want to make it to October. Braun has 47 hits to his name in 197 plate appearances, which goes along with a very public opinion that he’s been the victim of some bad luck. Assuming Braun continues to play in the same amount of games (give or take a couple for nagging injuries), a .300 average from now through game 162 would have Braun finishing the regular season with a .275 clip, still well below his career average of, coincidentally, .300. Love him or hate him, the Brewers need their franchise player to be a value-added bat in the starting lineup or they’re going to run into trouble. Braun has shown signs of breaking out, but hasn’t been able to string together consecutive successful weeks at the plate. Look for that to change if the Brewers make a run.
4. Jimmy Nelson pitches at least twice in August.
Nelson’s much anticipated return to the Brewers was put on pause back in May, when his rehab was shut down and he made a trip to his surgeon to check on the progress of his shoulder. The prognosis was positive, but Nelson continues to rehab at a frustratingly slow pace. While all signs continue to be positive, including Nelson stating last week that “the last week or two is the best it’s gone so far”.
I’m no doctor, I’m just a Senior Baseball Writer. That said, I don’t see Nelson making a rehab assignment until after the All-Star Break. Jimmy is down 25 pounds since Spring training, and being asked to contribute immediately after a year away from the game is a tall task. That said, Nelson has always been a fiery competitor, and I’m sure he’s just dying to contribute down the stretch.
The Brewers face the Reds six times in the last two weeks of August. If Nelson can return by then and use the games against Cincinnati to rush back to form, I see a scenario in which he returns to the starting rotation down the stretch. If this happens, watch out – a healthy Jimmy Nelson could spell the difference between a first-round exit and the Brewers second pennant in franchise history.
5. Jesus Aguilar makes the All-Star Game.
Brewers players are pushing hard for Aguilar to make his first All-Star game, despite his name not even appearing on the “official” ballots. Aguilar certainly deserves it – he ranks 2nd for NL first baseman for batting average, OPS, RBI, and Slugging, as well as 3rd in HRs with 15.
While Aguilar already deserves to be an All-Star, the cards are stacked against him. He plays a position loaded with undeserving big name players whose name recognition alone will get them a spot on the team, and he plays in baseball’s smallest market. He’s going to need to stay hot over the next three weeks to punch his ticket. Considering how wide of a gap there is between the good and the bad in the Brewer’s every day lineup, and the fact that Travis Shaw’s wrist injury may land him on the DL, the Brewers are going to need someone to step up on offense over the next month if they want to continue winning. I think Aguilar can be that guy.
Make sure you check with us next week as we finish out the list!